Sweden is about to experience a major demographic shift for the first time in over half a century. Data from early this year reveal a 60% increase in emigration compared to the same period last year, while immigration has dropped by a notable 15%. In the first five months of 2024 alone, Sweden saw 5,700 more people leave the country than arrive.
If these trends continue, the country will witness its first ever net emigration in over 50 years. This is an ironic situation considering Sweden had previously been a top destination for migrants from conflict zones and beyond.
Why is Emigration Higher Than Immigration in Sweden?
What exactly is behind this shift in migration trends? Well, the answer is simple—Sweden’s evolving immigration policies. Ever since late 2015, the country has moved from an arguably liberal stance on immigration to a more restrictive approach. Logistical challenges in handling a surge of asylum seekers as well as a political desire to address concerns about integration and social cohesion would also further drive this shift.
More recent policy changes in Sweden have strengthened the country's rules surrounding asylum and family reunification. In July this year, the government, led by Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson and supported by the far-right Democrats, introduced measures to curb immigration and encourage voluntary return. These notably include stricter requirements for asylum seekers and a crackdown on family reunification applications.
Is Sweden a Good Place to Seek Asylum Anymore?
According to statistics, asylum applications in Sweden have hit their lowest level since 1997, with just a fraction of the numbers seen during the peak of the migration crisis back in 2015. It is also projected that more people will be leaving the Scandinavian region than arriving in 2024.
This raises the question—is Sweden still a good place for those seeking asylum? Well, given the move towards more restrictive asylum policies, the country may no longer be an optimal destination for asylum seekers.
A recent press release by the Swedish government confirmed that there are now more people who originally came from Iraq, Somalia or Syria departing from the country. It is currently uncertain how many of these voluntary returnees fit into the latest migration statistics. However, Migration Minister Maria Malmer Stenergard believes that this is a result of the government's efforts which, in her words, ‘‘are bearing fruit.’’
However, critics contend that making life difficult for asylum seekers might not be the best way to encourage them to leave voluntarily. Migration expert Bernd Parusel argued back in 2017 that this would cause a ripple effect of more social hardship if they were deprived of benefits and accommodation.
Are Tougher Migration Policies Sweden's Best Solution to Crime?
Interestingly, despite the government's efforts towards tougher migration policies, Sweden continues to face issues with organized crime. The Swedish Prime Minister has attributed the issue to what he labels the past government's ‘‘irresponsible immigration policy and a failed integration.’’ While Kristersson has decided to combat the problem through thorough restrictions, immigration may not be the main driver.
The connection between higher crime rates in certain neighborhoods and socio-economic conditions, rather than just immigration policies, might be a better point of contention. Truly, the country has battled with criminal activities and violence, which evidently occur mostly in poorer migrant-dominated neighborhoods. But critics, instead, recommend that addressing poverty and unemployment might be more effective in reducing crime than simply tightening migration controls.