The final guardrail holding back a potential global nuclear arms race has officially dissolved. As of today, February 5, 2026, the New START treaty between the United States and Russia has expired, leaving the world’s two largest nuclear arsenals without legally binding limits for the first time in more than 50 years. In a dramatic strategic pivot, President Donald Trump has refused to renew the bilateral pact, instead launching a high-stakes diplomatic initiative to forge a new, trilateral framework that compels China to the negotiating table.
The End of the Post-Cold War Order
For a decade and a half, the New START treaty served as the bedrock of global strategic stability. Signed in 2010 by then-Presidents Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev, the agreement capped the number of deployed strategic nuclear warheads at 1,550 for both Washington and Moscow. It also limited deployed delivery systems—including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and heavy bombers—to 700 apiece.
Those limits are now null and void. The expiration creates an immediate vacuum in international security architecture, removing the inspection regimes and data exchanges that once provided crucial transparency between the superpowers. While Russia had suspended its active participation in the treaty’s inspection protocols back in 2023, the legal framework remained a symbolic barrier against unlimited expansion. Its collapse today marks the definitive end of the post-Cold War arms control era.
A Dangerous New Reality
Security experts warn that the absence of constraints could trigger a rapid modernization race. "We are entering uncharted territory," warns UN Secretary-General António Guterres, describing the expiration as a "grave moment" for global peace. Without the treaty’s verification mechanisms, US intelligence agencies will face diminished visibility into Russian nuclear movements, raising the risk of miscalculation during a time of heightened geopolitical friction.
Trump's Gamble: The Trilateral Push
Rather than attempting to salvage the dying bilateral agreement, President Trump is betting his nuclear strategy on a bold expansion. In a breaking development that has sent shockwaves through diplomatic channels, the President held a direct phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping earlier today to propose a "modern grand bargain."
Sources familiar with the conversation report that President Trump insisted that a bilateral treaty with Russia is obsolete in a world where China’s nuclear capabilities are rapidly accelerating. "If it expires, it expires," Trump reportedly stated regarding New START, echoing his long-held stance that any future deal must include Beijing. The White House is pushing for a trilateral framework that caps the arsenals of the US, Russia, and China simultaneously—a move the administration argues reflects the reality of 2026 geopolitics.
"The era of bilateralism is over," a senior White House official told reporters this morning. "We cannot tie our hands while a third superpower builds unchecked. The President is seeking a deal that secures the next 50 years, not one that clings to the past."
China's Resistance and Russian Ambivalence
The success of this strategy remains highly uncertain. Beijing has historically rejected calls to join US-Russia arms control talks, arguing that its arsenal is a fraction of the size of the two major powers. However, with Pentagon estimates projecting China's stockpile could double by the end of the decade, pressure is mounting. Early indications from Beijing suggest resistance, with Foreign Ministry spokespersons previously labeling trilateral demands as "unrealistic."
Meanwhile, the reaction from Moscow has been a mix of defiance and opportunism. Kremlin officials have signaled that while they are open to new talks, they will not wait for Washington to sort out its strategy. Russian defense analysts have already suggested that without treaty limits, Moscow may look to upload additional warheads onto its heavy ICBMs to compensate for conventional military setbacks—a move that would almost certainly trigger a reciprocal response from the Pentagon.
What Lies Ahead: Arms Race or New Deal?
As the sun sets on February 5, 2026, the global security landscape has fundamentally shifted. The buffer that kept nuclear competition predictable is gone. The coming months will be critical; if President Trump's trilateral gambit fails to gain traction, the world may witness a three-way arms race with no finish line in sight.
For now, the siloes remain quiet, but the treaties that governed them are history. The challenge for the Trump administration is to prove that destroying the old order was the necessary first step to building a safer one.
