As Ukraine steps up its defense efforts against Russian aggression following the invasion of Novohrodivka, the next goal in line is to acquire long-range missiles to target strategic locations inside Russia.
On Sunday, President Zelensky posted a fresh plea on social media, writing: “This week, the Russians have launched around 30 missiles of various types, more than 800 guided aerial bombs, and nearly 300 strike drones against Ukraine”.
“Ukraine needs strong support from our partners to defend lives against Russian terror - air defense, long-range capabilities, support for our warriors. Everything that will help force Russia to end this war.”
The latest intergovernmental process shows that the appeal is gaining traction among Western allies.
What Does This Mean?
Possible approval of Ukraine missile request could be a turning point in the war. With Ukraine at the receiving end of most of the offenses from Russia since the war began in 2022, the additional firepower could lead to a significant strategic improvement and even turn the tides in favor of Ukraine.
Both the United States and the United Kingdom, who happen to be major donors of military aid to Ukraine, are considering loosening restrictions on long-range weapons such as the British Storm Shadow, and U.S.-made Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS).
During their recent diplomatic visit, the U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and British Foreign Secretary David Lammy met with Ukrainian officials, including President Volodymyr Zelensky, to discuss Ukraine's immediate military needs.
Why a Long Range Missile?
Ukraine has made its objectives clear: attack Russian military assets and supply chains deep inside Russia. Many of these targets are beyond the reach of current Ukrainian missiles. Allowing Ukraine to deploy long-range systems such as Storm Shadow and ATACMS could disrupt Russian exports, weaken its air force and undermine military operations.
ATACMS has a range of 190 miles. With this potential, it would allow Ukraine strike targets far behind enemy lines. The UK Storm Shadow missile, also under consideration for the Ukrainian arsenal, offers similar long-range capability. These weapons would come in handy, especially as the conflict moves into winter, when Russian forces tend to intensify their operations.
Intergovernmental Negotiations and Western Withdrawal
While Ukraine’s need for long-range missiles is compelling, the decision is not straightforward because there are more strings attached. Until this very moment, the U.S. and the UK have imposed restrictions on the use of such missiles, particularly for attacks on Russian borders since this could escalate the conflict.
Despite these dangers, some officials in the U.S. and in UK governments are starting to rethink these restrictions. Recent reports indicate that the U.S. is “on the verge” of giving Ukraine permission to use long-range systems with growing bipartisan pressure from U.S. lawmakers. Michael McCaul, Chair of the U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee, has been particularly vocal in advocating for the removal of restrictions, stating that these systems are essential for Ukraine to defend itself effectively.
British Foreign Secretary David Lammy mentioned similar sentiments during a visit to Kiev. Emphasizing the need for caution, he acknowledged that the UK and the US have been in dialogues with Ukraine regarding military requirements.
What Happens Next?
As winter approaches, the urgency regarding Ukraine’s military and economic needs will increase. A decision on whether to grant Ukraine the requested long-range missiles could come in the next few months but even with the restrictions lifted, logistical challenges remain.
The U.S. has a limited number of ATACMS and production is already committed to various allies. Meanwhile, the UK has not made any definitive statement on the use of Storm Shadow missiles.
The stakes can’t be higher for Ukraine. The ability to strike deeper into Russia could change the course of the war, and could force Moscow to rethink its strategy. But the question for Western allies is how far can they go in supporting Ukraine without crossing the line that could lead to an escalation of the war?