New data from the JPMorgan Chase Institute reveals that tariff costs for midsize U.S. businesses have tripled over the past year, placing a significant financial burden on the sector that employs 48 million Americans. Released on Thursday, the groundbreaking JPMorgan Chase tariff study highlights the escalating economic disruption facing the "middle market" as companies struggle to absorb the costs of the administration's aggressive trade policies implemented throughout 2025.

Middle Market Facing Historic Cost Increases

The report paints a stark picture of the financial landscape for America's economic engine. According to the findings, monthly tariff payments by midsize firms—defined as those with revenues between $10 million and $1 billion—surged dramatically following the introduction of a new global trade regime in April 2025. By October, these costs had peaked at more than three times their late-2024 levels.

Chi Mac, business research director at the JPMorgan Chase Institute, emphasized the severity of the situation. "That's a big change in their cost of doing business," Mac stated in the report. Unlike massive multinationals that can leverage global scale to negotiate prices or absorb hits to their margins, midsize businesses often operate on thinner rails. The study indicates that these firms are now facing a "triple threat" of higher input costs, pressure to maintain competitive pricing, and the logistical nightmare of rewiring established supply chains.

Jeopardizing 48 Million American Jobs

The stakes extend far beyond corporate balance sheets. This sector is responsible for employing a combined 48 million people across the United States. As the impact of tariffs on jobs becomes more acute, business owners are left with few viable options: pass the costs on to consumers, accept significantly lower profit margins, or reduce their workforce. The report serves as a warning that the stability of this massive employment base is now under direct pressure from sustained trade tensions.

Supply Chain Shifts and US Economic Disruption 2026

One of the most critical insights from the study is the tangible shift in global commerce. The data shows that payments to Chinese suppliers by these midsize companies dropped 20% below their October 2024 levels. While this suggests the administration's goal of decoupling from China is taking effect, it comes at a steep price.

"We also see some indications that they may be shifting away from transacting with China and maybe toward some other regions in Asia," Mac noted. However, this transition is not seamless. Moving supply chains is expensive and time-consuming, creating near-term US economic disruption 2026. The US trade deficit 2026 numbers reflect this volatility, with Census Bureau data showing the deficit climbed by $25.5 billion to reach $1.24 trillion last year, defying predictions that tariffs would quickly balance the scales.

The Hidden Costs of "Protection"

While the number of firms paying tariffs increased by 28% between October 2024 and December 2025, the study found that the bulk of the dollar growth came from companies that were already importing. This suggests that the trade shock is concentrated among established businesses rather than new entrants.

For midsize business economic news watchers, this distinction is vital. It means that long-standing American companies—manufacturers, distributors, and retailers—are bearing the brunt of the policy. These